The Tokyo metropolitan area saw a sharp rise in the 2020s, reaching 48.02 million yen (70m2 equivalent average) in 2023. The rise was more prominent than in the Kinki and Chubu regions, and although it turned slightly downward in 2024, it remains at a high level of 47.47 million yen. As shown above, while prices and transactions are soaring mainly in central Tokyo, the market is becoming increasingly polarized, with a lull in appreciation and an adjustment phase evident in the suburbs and surrounding areas.
Transactions were brisk.
The number of contracts concluded was 3,950. The number of contracts was 3,950, up 21.5% from the same month last year, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year increase, and demand continues to be strong.
Price Trends
Contracted price per square meter was 811,000 yen/m2 , up 3.3% from the same month last year . The average price per sq. meter contracted increased for the 60th consecutive month, up 3.9% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month.
The average contract price was 50.47 million yen. The average contract price remained unchanged at 0.6% year-on-year, but increased steadily by 2.1% month-on-month.
Change in Property Size
The average exclusive floor space of completed properties was 62.22m2, down 3.2% from the same month last year. The average size of properties under contract was 62.22m2 , down 3.2% from the same month last year, indicating a trend toward smaller sizes.
Inventory and Supply
Inventory was 44,008 units, down 4.4% from the same month last year. Inventory decreased for the 12th consecutive month, down 4.4% year-on-year.
The unit price per square meter of inventory remained at a high level of 871,600 yen per square meter ( +21.5% year-on-year), indicating that sellers continue to be bullish on prices.
| Indicators | April 2025 | YoY Change | Compared to the same month of the previous year | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of contracts signed | 3,950 contracts | +21.5 | -*1.5 | Clear expansion of demand |
| Contracted m2 unit price | 811,100,000 yen/m2 | +3.9％ +2.7 | +2.7 | 60 consecutive months of increase |
| Average contract price | 50,470,000 yen | 0.6％ ＋2.1 | +2.1 | Prices remained steady in a flat range |
| Average private floor space | 62.22m2 | -3.2% -0.6 | -0.6 | Downsizing is progressing |
| Number of inventories | 44,008 items | -4.4% -4.4 | -*1.5 | Supply continues to tighten |
| Inventory per square meter | 871,600,000 yen/m2 | +21.5％ +2.8 | +2.8% +2.8 | Sellers are bullish |
The supply-demand balance remains tight due to the simultaneous increase in transaction volume and shrinking inventory.
Although the unit price per square meter has been on an upward trend, the shrinkage of exclusive area is restraining the growth of the average price.
Sellers have limited room for price negotiation, while buyers are required to make decisions as soon as possible due to a decrease in property options.
(Source: "Monthly Market Watch Summary Report 2025.4," East Japan Real Estate Information Network)
The price of used condominiums in Tokyo has been on a steady upward trend in recent years. In particular, the average price in Tokyo's 23 wards rose to 77.2 million yen (+9.4% year-on-year), and prices in central Tokyo, including Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato wards, soared by more than 20% year-on-year. Behind this sharp rise was strong real demand in the Tokyo economic zone as well as robust purchasing demand from wealthy individuals and overseas investment money. In fact, the condominium market in the 3A districts (Azabu, Akasaka, and Aoyama) has been driving the rise to the point of a double-dip recession. In the 23 wards, condominiums built between 11 and 15 years old are trading at 126% of the price when newly built, and those built between 16 and 20 years old at 122%, more than twice the price when newly built. This can be said to be a result of the increased purchasing power in the low-interest-rate financial environment and the concentration of funds in high-end properties that are in scarce supply.
INA&Associates' analysis suggests that the lack of supply, combined with the fact that central Tokyo tends to attract domestic and international demand and is less susceptible to economic fluctuations, will likely keep prices high or continue to rise in the high-end of central Tokyo. We believe that, combined with a shortage of supply, prices in the high-end zone in central Tokyo are likely to remain high or continue rising. In fact, the average price in Tokyo's 23 wards during the January-March period of 2025 soared 42.6% year-on-year to 134.48 million yen, and also rose 10.8% from the previous quarter. Many observers believe that in this price range, there are many fixed buyers and that even a temporary economic downturn is unlikely to cause a decline in prices.
On the other hand, in the Tama region and suburban areas such as Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa, there is a noticeable tendency for prices to head down or decline from the end of 2024 to 2025. The Tama region of Tokyo was exceptionally firm outside the 23 wards, with an average m2 unit price of 580,700 yen (+5.2% YoY) as of March 2025. As a suburban bedroom community, where new construction supply is scarce, there is solid demand, but there are some delays in sales of older properties that are far from stations. On the other hand, in Saitama Prefecture, while properties along train lines with good accessibility remain popular, prices have been adjusted due to an increase in the inventory of old properties in the suburbs, and the average square meter price turned slightly lower at 429,000 yen (-4.8% YoY). The recent surge in prices has led to an increase in supply and reluctance to buy, resulting in a disparity in demand even within an area.
In Chiba Prefecture (the eastern part of the Tokyo metropolitan area), prices continued to rise until 2024, but fell below the previous year's level in March 2025 (average price of 372,600,000 yen/m2 , -7.5% YoY). In areas far from Tokyo in particular, there is an increased emphasis on affordability, and there are some unsold properties in areas that do not have direct access to Shinagawa. Nevertheless, the number of transactions itself is on the rise, and demand remains high in areas directly connected to central Tokyo. In Kanagawa Prefecture, the Yokohama/Kawasaki area has also seen a decline for two consecutive months, averaging 616,400 yen/m2 (-4.3% YoY), while remote areas other than Yokohama and Kawasaki, such as Shonan and Yokosuka, have seen a large decline of 396,700 yen/m2 (-9.2% YoY). This is thought to be a reaction to the suburban and resort areas that became popular due to the Corona disaster. In all areas, the market has entered a phase in which sales will not sell without a price adjustment, and the number of contracts in Yokohama and Kawasaki City is increasing (+33% y-o-y). On the other hand, Kawasaki City (especially the Musashi-Kosugi area) has strong demand due to its convenience similar to that of central Tokyo, but even though it is outside the 23 wards, it is effectively in the Tokyo demand zone, and its high price range is said to be firm over the medium to long term, although it has stalled somewhat.
In general, the suburbs and suburbs are moving from a phase of soaring prices before 2024 to "reasonable prices driven by actual demand. The survey by ATHOME also reports that "prices in Saitama (Saitama City/others) and Chiba (western/others) prefectures continue to be lower than in the same month of the previous year," while "prices in Tokyo (23 wards/downtown), Kanagawa, and other prefectures have reached their highest levels since January 2017. In short, "the market is extremely buoyant in major areas back in the city center, such as central Tokyo and Kawasaki City, but the market is cooling down in remote areas and markets centered on older properties.
Demand trends in the Tokyo metropolitan area are also influenced by population movements. According to the most recent statistics, the inflow of young people to Tokyo (especially to the 23 wards) is accelerating, and in 2024, the Tokyo metropolitan area as a whole had an excess of approximately 136,000 new residents, of which the 23 wards of Tokyo alone had an excess of 58,800 new residents. Recovering to pre-Corona levels, young people in their 20s and 30s are flocking to Tokyo. Meanwhile, neighboring prefectures (Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba), where there are many people of the same age group, are also experiencing an excess of several tens of thousands of transfers, and households are increasing along train lines that are highly convenient for commuting. In contrast, many elderly people are moving into the regional areas, and young people are increasingly concentrated in Tokyo. This "concentration of young people in the Tokyo metropolitan area" in terms of population is a factor that is pushing up housing demand, especially in central Tokyo.
On the financial front, while variable-rate loans have been at historically low levels due to the ultra-low interest rate policy to date, the megabanks will begin to raise their fixed mortgage rates from April 2025, and the market appears to be entering an upward phase. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan continues to maintain an accommodative stance, and demand is unlikely to suddenly cool down. However, it has been pointed out that in the suburban markets for young people and low-income consumers, the rising interest rates may cause budgets to shrink and buyers to hold off. In other words, although the market is currently a seller's market due to a lack of supply, there is a possibility of a soft landing adjustment, depending on future interest rate and economic trends.
In the most recent market conditions, transaction volume has become active again: the number of pre-owned condominium contracts in the Tokyo metropolitan area in March 2025 was 4,991, a significant increase of 31.0% year-on-year and the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year growth. The increase in transactions appears to have been spurred by demand in the run-up to the new fiscal year. By area, the number of transactions increased in almost all areas, including Tokyo's 23 wards (+28.4%) and Yokohama/Kawasaki in Kanagawa (+33.2%), indicating that the market as a whole is booming.
In terms of price, the average contracted price in the Tokyo metropolitan area was approximately 49.45 million yen per unit (+2.6% YoY), and the unit price per square meter was 790,100 yen (+4.1% YoY), maintaining an upward trend that has continued for over five years. However, there are clear differences by area, with a large increase in contracted square meter prices in the 23 wards of Tokyo, but a decline in suburban areas.
Inventory conditions remained tight: new listings in March 2025 totaled 16,844, almost unchanged from the same month last year, while total inventory was 43,941, down 5.2% from the previous year, marking the 11th consecutive month in which inventory has declined. The newly registered unit price per square meter (based on offer price) soared to 9,021,000 yen (+22.2% y/y), and high prices are noticeable at the offer stage. In general, the number of properties in circulation is on a downward trend, and popular properties tend to close early and prices tend to rise, suggesting that sales periods are becoming shorter.
According to the latest data from Miki Shoji and Xymax Research Institute, the office rental market in the five central wards of Tokyo (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, and Shibuya) is tightening in terms of supply and demand. Vacant floor space in the Tokyo business district as a whole declined as large buildings completed less than one year ago were also contracted. The vacancy rate for new buildings fell to 26.26% (-0.28% YoY), indicating that market conditions are tightening, except for some large projects. Average rent was 20,755 yen per tsubo, up 4.7% YoY (+0.55% MoM), maintaining an upward trend for 15 consecutive months.
Consistent with this, the Xymax Research Institute's quarterly report (Q1 2025) also showed that the vacancy rate for the entire 23 wards of Tokyo fell for the seventh consecutive quarter to 2.33% (-0.44 points from the previous quarter), and the asking area ratio also dropped to 3.50% (-0.49 points from the previous quarter). The DI for contract rents rose for the fourth consecutive quarter to +26 (+4 from the previous quarter), as the proportion of properties with new contract rents also increased, and the market as a whole is seeing a spreading trend of rising rents. On the other hand, free rent continues to be granted in many cases for ancillary services, with 52.9% of all contracts granting free rent (2.7 months on average), and brokers continue to adjust terms and conditions as they promote the supply of leased space.
In summary, the Tokyo metropolitan area, including the office market, continues to experience strong demand and tight supply, especially in central Tokyo, creating an environment in which rents and prices are likely to rise. Investment money continues to flow easily into high-end properties in central Tokyo, where the supply of new construction is low, while adjustments are beginning to take place in suburban areas and areas of oversupply. Investors and industry players are finding it increasingly important to develop area strategies that take into account the supply-demand balance in each market and macro factors (interest rates and demographics).