The Type 1 Urban Area Redevelopment Project underway in front of Saginuma Station, Miyamae-ku, Kawasaki City, will begin in earnest around winter 2025. This large-scale project is attracting attention as one of the largest redevelopment projects along the Tokyu Denentoshi Line in recent years, and is expected to bring significant changes to the local real estate market.
In this article, INA & Associates, Inc. provides a detailed description of the Saginuma Station Area Type 1 Urban Area Redevelopment Project and its significance for real estate investors and local residents from a professional perspective. Based on data, we will analyze how this project, with a total project cost of several tens of billions of yen, will affect the property values andfuture potential of the area.
The Saginuma Ekimae Area Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project is a large-scale urban development project covering approximately 2.3 hectares in the Saginuma 1-chome, 3-chome, and Kodai 1-chome areas in Miyamae-ku, Kawasaki City. The project is being promoted as a public-private partnership, with the Saginuma Station Urban Area Redevelopment Association acting as the project sponsor and Tokyu Corporation participating as the project partner.
Kawasaki City has positioned the area around Saginuma Station as a regional living hub, and the project aims to achieve a high level of land utilization in response to the current situation where low-utilized land such as parking lots are scattered throughout the area. In particular, the topographical characteristics of the area, with its many mountain slopes, make it accessible to the station by local buses, and there was an urgent need to respond to the increasing demand for bus transportation.
The promotion of this project has followed the following process.
Major milestones
| Months and Years | Major events |
|---|---|
| August 2017 | Saginuma Station Area Redevelopment Preparation Association established |
| September 2023 | Urban planning decision made |
| November 2024 | Saginuma Ekimae Area Urban Redevelopment Association establishment approved |
| Winter 2025 | Construction work is scheduled to begin |
The establishment of the Urban Redevelopment Association was approved on November 11, 2024, in accordance with Article 11, Paragraph 1 of the Urban Redevelopment Law, and preparations are currently underway for the start of full-scale construction.
This redevelopment project will be divided into two areas: the Station Area and the North Area. The details of each building plan are as follows.
Building Plan for the Ekimae Area
In the Ekimae-Kaiku, a skyscraper complex with 32 stories above ground and 2 below will be constructed, with a height of approximately 133 meters. This building will be the tallest structure in Miyamae Ward, Kawasaki City.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Site area | Approximately 11,170 square meters |
| Building area | Approximately 9,440 square meters |
| Total floor area | Approximately 83,193 square meters |
| Floor-area ratio | Approx. 500 |
| Number of floors | 32 above ground, 2 basement levels |
| Building Height | Approx. 133 meters |
| Main uses | Retail, civic center and library (including main hall), urban residential, business, parking, etc. |
| Number of residential units | Approx. 342 units |
Building Plan for the North Block
The North District will be a complex of buildings with 19 stories above ground and 2 below, approximately 89 meters in height, and will be the relocation site of the Miyamae Ward Office.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Site area | Approximately 3,680 square meters |
| Building area | Approx. 3,150 square meters |
| Total floor area | Approx. 26,123 square meters |
| Floor-area ratio | Approximately 500 |
| Number of floors | 19 above ground, 2 basement levels |
| Building Height | Approximately 89 meters |
| Main uses | Ward office, civic center (small hall), urban housing, parking, etc. |
| Housing units | Approx. 110 units |
The total number of housing units in the two blocks together will be approximately 452 units, creating a large-scale supply of housing in Miyamae Ward. This is a scale that will have a significant impact on the balance of housing supply and demand in the area.
The most significant feature of this redevelopment project is the integrated development of the station area in collaboration with Tokyu Corporation. This will enable a direct connection between the station and the redevelopment building, which has been difficult to achieve in conventional redevelopment projects.
Major details of the station improvement project
1) New direct underground ticket gate
A new ticket gate directly connected to the first basement level of the redevelopment building will be installed to provide a flow line from the station to commercial and public facilities without getting wet in the rain. 2.
(2) Construction of a new north-south free passageway
In order to solve the current situation where the north-south axis is divided across Saginuma Station, a new free passageway will be built across the station. This will make it much more convenient to come and go between the north exit side of the station and the redevelopment building side. 3.
(3) Redevelopment of the traffic plaza
A traffic plaza will be constructed to facilitate transfers between buses, cabs, and other public transportation and railroads, thereby strengthening the transportation nodal function. 4.
Optimize the layout of commercial facilities
By locating commercial facilities in positions facing the north-south free passageway, we will enhance the circulation of station users and create a bustling space in front of the station.
These improvements are expected to significantly increase the convenience of the average daily ridership of Saginuma Station (approximately 40,000 passengers) and drastically improve pedestrian flow around the station.
The redevelopment project will include the Miyamae Ward Office and other important public facilities. The layout of these facilities is a factor directly related to the improvement of local convenience and asset value.
Major public facilities to be newly constructed or relocated
| Facility Name | Location | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| Miyamae Ward Office | Kita-ward | Relocated from the current Miyamae Ward Office to improve accessibility |
| Civic Center (Main Hall) | Ekimae-ward | To be developed as a base for cultural and exchange functions |
| Civic Center (Small Hall) | North district | Utilized as a place for local community activities |
| Library | Ekimae Area | Enhancement of functions as a center for learning and information dissemination |
The relocation of the Miyamae Ward Office is a particularly important decision, considering its accessibility from all areas of the ward. Compared to the current ward office, the new location directly connected to the railroad station will greatly enhance convenience for ward residents. This is an important factor that will boost the convenience value of the surrounding real estate.
Commercial facilities located in the area in front of the station will play an important role in increasing the commercial concentration in the area. Currently, the area around Saginuma Station has limited large-scale commercial facilities, and many residents are forced to shop at other stations.
The commercial facilities to be developed through this redevelopment will have the following features
- Accessibility directly connected to the station: Direct access from the first basement floor
- Linkage with the north-south free passageway: Facilitates the natural circulation of passersby.
- Attraction of various types of businesses: Concentration of various services necessary for daily life
- Locally-oriented stores: A store mix that responds to the needs of residents
The development of these commercial facilities is expected to promote consumption within the area and revitalize the local economy. In addition, the enhancement of commercial facilities will also contribute to the improvement of the living environment, which will be a factor in increasing housing demand.
The redevelopment project in the Saginuma Station area is expected to have a multi-layered impact on the surrounding real estate market. Analysis of similar past cases shows that large-scale redevelopment projects generally exhibit the following price fluctuation patterns.
Factors affecting real estate prices due to redevelopment
1. improvement of transportation convenience
The value of properties within walking distance of stations will increase due to the development of functions directly connected to stations. Convenience premiums are expected to be added, especially for existing condominiums and detached houses within a 5-minute walking distance. 2.
(2) Enhancement of commercial and public facilities
The improvement in the convenience of daily life will increase the attractiveness of the residential environment. This will stimulate demand for housing, especially among families, and have the effect of raising the level of housing demand. 3.
(3) Enhancement of regional image
The brand value of Kawasaki City is expected to be enhanced by clarifying the city's position as a regional living hub.
Impact of New Housing Supply
The supply of approximately 452 new housing units may become a competitive factor in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it is expected to stimulate housing demand in the entire region.
The following factors should be considered when evaluating real estate in the vicinity of this redevelopment project as an investment target.
Positive factors
- Establishment of location superiority: Highly rare location directly connected to the station
- Population inflow promotion: Population increase due to new housing supply and improved convenience
- Stabilization of rental demand: Housing demand from public facility workers and commercial facility employees
- Future increase in asset value: Long-term increase in value due to completion of regional development
Risk Factors
- Impact during construction period: Temporary deterioration of the environment due to long-term construction from 2025 to 2035
- Competition from new supply: Competition with approximately 452 new residential units
- Increase in initial investment cost: Price increase in anticipation of redevelopment effects
From a rental real estate investment perspective, the redevelopment project is expected to have the following impacts
Changes in rental demand
1) Demand from public facility-related parties
With the relocation of the Miyamae Ward Office, residential demand from ward office employees and related workers is expected to be concentrated in the station area.
2) Demand from employees of commercial facilities
Demand for rental housing by employees of new commercial facilities is expected to increase. 3.
Demand from people who value transportation convenience
Demand from singles and DINKS households that value commuting convenience is expected to increase due to the direct connection to the station.
Predicted Impact on Rent Levels
In many cases of similar redevelopment projects in the past, rents in the surrounding area have increased by 10-20% within 3-5 years after the completion of the project. In the redevelopment project in front of Saginuma Station, rents are expected to increase due to the following factors
- Location premium due to the scarcity of direct connection to the station
- Convenience premium due to the abundance of commercial and public facilities
- Image premium due to the enhancement of the local brand
The detailed schedule of the redevelopment project is as follows.
Project Progress Schedule
| Period | Major construction and completion schedule |
|---|---|
| FY2025 | Start of infrastructure construction, construction of temporary bus rotary |
| Around winter 2025 | Start of Saginuma Station improvement work |
| FY2031 | Completion of construction of the area in front of the station, completion of station improvement work |
| FY2035 | Completion of construction of the north section, completion of all projects |
Investment Timing Considerations
1. present (2025): possible acquisition at the price level before the start of construction
2. 2026-2030: Gradual price increase as construction progresses
3. 2031 onward: Full-scale value increase with the completion of the station area
4. 2035 and beyond: Final value determination upon completion of the entire project
In order to maximize investment efficiency, it is considered most advantageous to acquire properties from just before the start of construction until around 2026. However, investment decisions must factor in a risk premium to account for temporary deterioration of the living environment during the construction period.
The Saginuma Station Area Type 1 Urban Redevelopment Project is an epoch-making project that will realize a drastic improvement in urban functions in Miyamae Ward, Kawasaki City. The characteristics of the project and its impact on investment are summarized below.
1. realization of integrated station area development
Through collaboration with Tokyu Corporation, the project will create a rare and highly valuable location directly connected to the station. 2.
(2) Strategic allocation of public facilities
The concentration of important public facilities, including the Miyamae Ward Office, will establish the centrality of the area. 3.
(3) Reinforcement of transportation nodal functions
A new north-south free passageway and a traffic plaza will improve accessibility to the entire area.
(4) Enhancement of commercial functions
Commercial facilities directly connected to the station will greatly improve the livability of residents.
INA&Associates K.K. believes that the redevelopment project has medium- to long-term investment value for the following reasons.
Reasons for investment recommendation
- Certainty of the project due to policy support from Kawasaki City
- Quality assurance by Tokyu Group's participation in the project
- Rare large-scale development along the Denentoshi Line
- Stable demand base due to the concentration of public facilities
Proposed investment timing
The optimal investment timing is in the early construction phase from 2025 to 2026. By acquiring the property during this period, it is likely to maximize the benefits of redevelopment.
We recommend the following steps for those considering investment related to this redevelopment project.
1. conduct a site visit: confirm current conditions before construction begins
2) Conduct a market survey of surrounding properties: Identify price trends and supply conditions
3. formulate a financial plan: develop an investment plan that takes into account the construction period
4. consulting with experts: detailed examination of tax and legal aspects
INA&Associates Inc. offers individual consultations. We can provide advice from a professional perspective as part of your asset-building strategy for ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Please feel free to contact us!